NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market marked its fifth year on Monday after completing a four-year streak of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022. That session saw the index close at 3,577.03, its lowest point since November 2020. As of the most recent close on Friday, the index finished at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026 and nearing historic highs. The index also gained 1.2% over the week.
This ongoing rally ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. It is only the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% growth, while significant, remains below the average increase of 184% seen across the studied bull markets. Past cycles experienced much larger cumulative gains, with the 2009-to-2020 bull market surging by 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 period climbing by 582%. These two cycles continue to stand out as some of the most robust in history.
Historical data suggest that many bull markets that reach this stage tend to produce positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. When markets hit a fifth year, the average return for that year was about 12%, with a median gain of 15%. Additionally, during fifth years, the maximum drawdown averaged around 14%. These figures illustrate past behavior rather than a certain forecast for the current cycle.
Robust Earnings Growth Bolsters Market Confidence
Corporate earnings have been a key driver of the recent upward momentum. FactSet reported that S&P 500 earnings for the third quarter were tracking 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of October 9. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, the growth rate stood at 29.2%. Among 19 index companies reporting earnings by October 9, 84% surpassed analysts’ average estimates, with aggregate earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Market forecasts remain optimistic for the remainder of the year. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings will increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. For the full year 2026, earnings growth is expected to reach 32.4%. Notably, about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms. These sectors also account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. The data emphasize that technology companies remain central players in earnings revisions.
Interest Rates and Bond Yields Continue to Influence Market Conditions
The stock market’s ascent persists amid sustained higher U.S. interest rates and elevated government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. The central bank noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, with inflation remaining high. Its September projections estimate median economic growth for 2026 at 2.3%, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields also remain near multi-year peaks as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. Despite these high yields, the S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher, ending at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%. As stocks approach their fifth year, they do so alongside near-record levels, bolstered by strong earnings growth and borrowing costs above earlier bull-market levels.
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